More Water in the Atmosphere and Increasing Permanence of General Weather Situations Make the Risk GrowĪccording to KIT's researchers, it is impossible to exactly confirm or completely deny that a single extreme event or the sequence of several extremes is caused by climate change, in particular when these events take place on short temporal and spatial scales that are strongly influenced by local factors. ![]() However, it must be considered that the flooded areas represent part of the total area affected only. Using empirical data of past flood disasters (infrastructure damage, damage due to natural hazards, and other damage), the researchers estimated the total damage to range between 11 and 24 billion euros (first CEDIM estimate: July 21, 2021). According to estimates, about 19,000 buildings having a total value of about nine billion euros are located in the flooded areas. To estimate the flooded areas in the most severely hit districts of Ahrweiler and Rhein-Erft, the research team combined satellite data with aerial photos of (amateur) drones and helicopters and photos published in social media. This situation was aggravated by the fact that the soil had already been saturated by high precipitation volumes on the previous days. In addition, the structured terrain of the regions affected, in particular in the district of Ahrweiler, with its deep river valleys increased surface flow. Most of the precipitation even fell within about ten hours only," CEDIM Spokesperson Professor Michael Kunz reports. "Within 48 hours, rainfall quantities in parts of North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate exceeded the total precipitation volume usually encountered in the month of July. Several Factors Caused the Extremely High Precipitationįrom the meteorological perspective, several factors caused the extremely high precipitation. On this basis, experts estimated a flow rate that ranged between 400 and 700 m 3/s. From model calculations, the Rhineland-Palatinate State Agency for the Environment calculated a river level of up to seven meters in the night of the disaster. ![]() As a result of the flood, the measurement station, however, broke down at a water level of 5.05 m (flow rate: 332 m 3/s). ![]() The researchers explain that enormous precipitation volumes caused the Ahr river level (at Altenahr) to clearly exceed it previous record of 2016 (3.71 m, flow rate: 236 m 3/s). How did it come to the floods that mainly hit Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia? How can flood risks-in particular rare and extreme events-be better estimated in advance? These questions were studied by the Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Group of CEDIM that presented a first report. Meanwhile, the German Insurance Association has estimated the insured loss to range from four to five billion euros in Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia only. It will amount to double-digit billions, including at least 2 billion euros for the transport infrastructures. Damage to buildings and infrastructure facilities can be estimated roughly only. Last week's flood disaster in Germany caused more than 170 deaths (status: July 21, 2021).
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